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The Climate Forecasting Unit

Welcome to the page of the Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU), a research group within the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (Institut Català de Ciencies del Clima - IC3)

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The Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU) undertakes research on the development and assessment of dynamical and statistical methods for the prediction of global and regional climate on time scales ranging from a few weeks to several years. Sources of predictability and processes at the origin of model error play a major role in the assessment. The formulation of the predictions includes the development and implementation of techniques to statistically downscale, calibrate and combine dynamical ensemble and empirical forecasts to satisfy specific user needs in the framework of the development of a climate service.

Full details of the CFU objectives can be found here. These objectives are summarized in a presentation CFUpresentation.pdf.

A summary of the research progress during the first CFUactivity_2009-10.pdf and second CFUactivity_2010-11.pdf years of existence of the Unit are also available.

A list of the recent CFU publications follows below. The CFU also manages a series of technical memoranda available [WWW]here.

Peer-reviewed papers

  1. Du, H., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, J. García-Serrano, V. Guemas, Y. Soufflet and B. Wouters (2012). Sensitivity of decadal predictions to the initial atmospheric and oceanic perturbations. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1285-9.

  2. Weisheimer, A., T.N. Palmer and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2011). Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles. [WWW]Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L16703, doi:10.1029/2011GL048123.

  3. Doblas-Reyes, F.J., M.A. Balmaseda, A. Weisheimer and T.N. Palmer (2011). Decadal climate prediction with the ECMWF coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations. [WWW]Journal Geophysical Research A, 116, D19111, doi:10.1029/2010JD015394.

  4. Ma, S., X. Rodó and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2011). Evaluation of the DEMETER performance for seasonal hindcasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. [WWW]International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.2389.

  5. Koster, R.D., S.P.P. Mahanama, T.J. Yamada, G. Balsamo, A.A. Berg, M. Boisserie, P.A. Dirmeyer, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, G. Drewitt, C.T. Gordon, Z. Guo, J-H. Jeong, W-S. Lee, Z. Li, L. Luo, S. Malyshev, W. J. Merryfield, S. I. Seneviratne, T. Stanelle, B.J.J.M. van den Hurk, F. Vitart and E.F. Wood (2011). The second phase of the global land-atmosphere coupling experiment: Soil moisture contributions to subseasonal forecast skill. [WWW]Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12, 805-822, doi: 10.1175/2011JHM1365.1.

  6. Weisheimer, A., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, T. Jung and T.N. Palmer (2011). On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe. [WWW]Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L05704, doi:10.1029/2010GL046455.

  7. Stockdale, T.N., D.L.T. Anderson, M.A. Balmaseda, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, L. Ferranti, K. Mogensen, T.N. Palmer, F. Molteni and F. Vitart (2011). ECMWF seasonal forecast System 3 and its prediction of sea surface temperature. [WWW]Climate Dynamics, 37, 455-471, doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0947-3.

  8. van den Hurk, B., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, G. Balsamo, R. Koster, S. Seneviratne and H. Camargo Jr. (2011). Soil moisture effects on seasonal temperature and precipitation forecast scores in Europe. [WWW]Climate Dynamics, 38, 349-362, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0956-2.

  9. García-Serrano, J., B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, I. Bladé, P. Zurita-Gotor and A. de la Cámara (2011). Rotational atmospheric circulation during North Atlantic-European winter: the influence of ENSO. [WWW]Climate Dynamics, 37, 1727-1743, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0968-y.

  10. García-Serrano, J., T. Losada and B. Rodríguez-Fonseca (2011). Extratropical atmospheric response to the Atlantic Niño decaying phase. [WWW]Journal of Climate, 24, 1613-1625, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3640.0.

  11. Koster, R.D., S.P.P. Mahanama, T.J. Yamada, G. Balsamo, F. Vitart, A.A. Berg, G. Drewitt, M. Boisserie, P.A. Dirmeyer, Z. Guo, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, C.T. Gordon, J.-H. Jeong, D.M. Lawrence, W.-S. Lee, Z. Li, L. Luo, S. Malyshev, W.J. Merryfield, S.I. Seneviratne, T. Stanelle, B.J.J.M. van den Hurk, E.F. Wood (2010). The contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from multi-model experiment. [WWW]Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L02402, doi:10.1029/2009GL041677.

  12. Philippon, N., F.J. Doblas-Reyes and P. Ruti (2010). Skill, reproducibility and potential predictability of the West African monsoon in coupled GCMs. [WWW]Climate Dynamics, 35, 53-74, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0856-5.

Other publications

  1. Doblas-Reyes, F.J., G.J. van Oldenborgh, J. García-Serrano, H. Pohlmann, A.A. Scaife and D. Smith (2011). CMIP5 near-term climate prediction. [WWW]CLIVAR Exchanges, 56, 8-11.

  2. Doblas-Reyes, F.J., A Weisheimer, T.N. Palmer, J.M. Murphy and D. Smith (2010). Forecast quality assessment of the ENSEMBLES seasonal-to-decadal Stream 2 hindcasts. [WWW]ECMWF Technical Memorandum No. 621, 45 pp, ECMWF, Reading, UK.

  3. Doblas-Reyes, F.J., M.A. Balmaseda, A Weisheimer and T.N. Palmer (2010). Decadal climate prediction with the ECMWF coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations. [WWW]ECMWF Technical Memorandum No. 633, 24 pp, ECMWF, Reading, UK.

CFU posters
Climate Services for Renewable Energy: 20111104_CLIMRUN_poster_sml_2.pdf

The CFU participates in a list of FP7 projects:

  1. [WWW]CLIMRUN

  2. [WWW]QWeCI

  3. DENFREE

The IC3 website can be found [WWW]here, while the IC3 Internal portal can be found [WWW]here.

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